Originally published on June 24, 2025
Investors are keeping a close eye on Canada’s Consumer Price Index for signs that the ongoing global trade tensions are impacting Canada’s economy. Robert Both, Senior Macro Strategist at TD Securities joins MoneyTalk to break down the latest CPI data and what it means for markets.
Transcript
Anthony Okolie: Well, Canada’s inflation rate held steady in May, coming in at 1.7%, in line with expectations. So what does that mean for Canada’s economy going forward? We’re joined now by Robert Both, Senior Macro Strategist at TD Securities.
And Robert, thanks for joining the show again.
Robert Both: Thank you, Anthony. Always a pleasure to be on the program.
Anthony Okolie: Alright. So we got the inflation numbers. What’s your latest reaction to the numbers?
Robert Both: So this feels like the first time we’ve had somewhat of a boring inflation report for a while. The last couple, you’ve been seeing more pressure on core inflation metrics. You’ve been seeing some upside surprises on the headline measure as well. So, to get something that was as expected for both headline and core, it’s a very nice change from the environment we’ve been in the last couple of months.
Core inflation is still sitting at the upper limit of the Bank of Canada’s target range. The two measures the bank follows most closely are both sitting at 3% on a year-over-year basis and a three-month annualized basis. So right now, those three-month annualized rates are telling us that there’s not a whole lot of upward or downward momentum.
If the month-over-month changes were to continue at this rate, we would essentially just stay here. So, the Bank of Canada is going to want to see those start to bend lower. Inflation is still uncomfortably hot from the Bank of Canada’s
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